"To be honest, I'll believe it when I see it": Can the government actually deliver on its free childcare promise?

Doubts as to whether the government can stick to its pledge of free childcare are rife as the childcare sector struggles with a staffing crisis and a lack of funding.

Back in March 2023, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt announced a wave of changes to the free childcare scheme in England, as part of the government's pledge to break down the barriers that stop people working. Speaking in Parliament, Jeremy Hunt said: "I don’t want any parent with a child under 5 to be prevented from working, if they want to, because it is damaging to our economy and unfair, mainly to women."

It was promised that the 30 hours free childcare scheme would be rolled out to every single child over the age of nine months by September 2025, and that every child over the age of nine months would get 15 hours free childcare by September 2024.

At the time, parents were dismayed that they would have to wait more than 12 months for the free childcare extension to kick in and help with childcare costs. But while extending the eligibility criteria for the childcare schemes, the Chancellor highlighted a significant bump in the road - a childcare supply shortage.

So with this shortage, can the government actually deliver the pledge?

The childcare supply problem

But the sector also faces cost pressures, making it hard for childcare establishments to recruit and retain additional staff. Those pressures also lead to and increase in the price that parents have to pay to secure childcare they need.

The government also then promised additional funding to nurseries offering free childcare, and offered more flexibility on how they operate in line with other parts of the UK, with the minimum staff-to-child ratios changed from 1:4 to 1:5.

In his Spring Budget speech, the Chancellor addressed the dwindling supply of childcare options, saying: "We have seen a significant decline in childminders over recent years – down 9% in England in just one year. But childminders are a vital way to deliver affordable and flexible care and we need more of them." And so the government has introduced incentive payments of £600 for childminders who sign up to the profession, rising to £1,200 for those who join through an agency.

But the sector also faces cost pressures, making it hard for childcare establishments to recruit and retain additional staff. Those pressures also lead to and increase in the price that parents have to pay to secure childcare they need.

The government also then promised additional funding to nurseries offering free childcare, and offered more flexibility on how they operate in line with other parts of the UK, with the minimum staff-to-child ratios changed from 1:4 to 1:5.

Are the childcare reforms enough to deliver on the free childcare promise?

While the government is plowing ahead with it's plan, (it recently announced the date which working parents of two-year olds can register for 15 hours free childcare which will come into effect from April 2024), those providing the care are much more sceptical as to whether it can actually be fulfilled. According to The Independent, research from The University of Leeds and the Early Education and Childcare Coalition suggests that almost 100,000 extra workers will be needed to fulfil the pledge, as well as an additional 180,000 places by the end of 2025.

But this additional need comes at a time when the childcare sector has been struggling with adequate funding. In an open letter to the chancellor, education secretary and children and families minister, CEO of the Early Years Alliance, Neil Leitch wrote: "As you will be aware, the early years sector has expressed serious concerns about the viability of this policy and its potential impact on providers if not funded adequately...

"This is a flagship government policy that has been heavily promoted, and expectations among families are high.

"What the government is asking of providers is no small thing: to deliver one of the biggest expansions the sector has seen in the midst of a recruitment and retention crisis and on the back of years of underfunding."

Neil adds: "The policy is a perfect example of the 'announce first, think later' approach that government continues to take when it comes to early years. With the start of the expansion just months away, it remains to be seen whether there is any hope of this policy actually working in practice." 

The impact on families

But while the Government and childcare suppliers seem at odd with what is achievable, it is families that will be hit the hardest.

Mum-of-two, Laura Crombie says: "My youngest turns two in February so we will benefit from this in April, but to be honest, I'll believe it when I see it. I know too many women who basically work for nothing as childcare swallows all of their wages, so this is a welcome change if it actually comes to pass. My nursery fees are going up from £77 to £86 per day from January and my daughter only attends two days a week as I work part time, so this will be hugely beneficial to us. I also have a six-year-old and wish this had been introduced when she was younger."

But Laura has also seen first-hand the challenges facing the industry: "Our nursery has a waiting list and struggles to find high-quality, qualified staff so shortages are apparent."

If you're trying to factor childcare into your family's budget, it's worth making sure you understand the average childcare costs, including how much nursery costs, as well as how much it costs to raise a child.